The presidential elections that will be held in 2013 in the South Caucasus are particularly important for regional politics. In the lead-up to elections, the relevant states are concerned with domestic problems rather than foreign issues. Azerbaijan and Armenia suspended the solution process in respect to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to have greater time and energy to spend on domestic politics. The new government in Georgia is now focused on domestic stability for a more constructive foreign policy.

Another important development in the region in the lead-up to several presidential elections is the discussion over the Eurasian Union, an ambitious initiative sponsored by Russia in the geography of the former Soviet Union. With a customs union joined by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus coming into force, the subscription of other former Soviet nations is also expected. Such initiatives by Russia also shape the foreign policy priorities of the administrations in the Caucasus and affect the election processes in these countries.

Azerbaijan’s current leader, Ilham Aliyev, will be most likely nominated for the third time in the presidential elections to be held in October 2013 in the country. The members and deputies of the New Azerbaijan Party announced their full support for his candidacy. Following the footsteps of Haydar Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president focuses on developing equal and balanced ties with relevant actors. However, despite this attention, in Aliyev’s second term, Azerbaijani foreign policy experienced problems with Iran and Israel. Of course, this is not unilateral, meaning that the deteriorated relations should also be attributed to the actions of Iranian decision-makers as well. It should also be noted that no constructive development had taken place with respect to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Failure of the parties and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group to offer a solution led to further tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The unconstructive approach by Aliyev vis-à-vis Turkey’s initiative to normalize relations with Armenia ensured the continuation of the status quo. Aliyev insisted that the policy of isolation towards Armenia should continue and that concrete results would be secured only by such an approach.

In contrast to expectations, Russian-Azerbaijani relations have not been strongly affected by the return of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency. Russia’s opposition to the amount asked by Azerbaijan for a lease to use the Gebele military base as well as Aliyev’s resistance to the Eurasian Union project have negatively affected bilateral relations between the two countries. Aliyev seems to be the strongest candidate for the presidency in the elections because the opposition has not agreed on their own candidate.

However, the Equality Party has nominated Isa Gamber, who was nominated in the presidential elections in 2003 as well, in which he lost to Aliyev. The leaders of newly established parties in the country are also expected to join the elections. These include candidates with different visions, including Ali Aliyev from the Citizen and Development Party (affiliated with the Justice and Development Bloc), and Ilgar Mammedov, leader of the REAL Movement. Mammedov, who was imprisoned for his call for insurgency in Ismayilli on Feb. 4, was officially nominated for the presidency by the REAL Movement on Feb. 5.

Ali Aliyev is a conservative and takes the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) of Turkey as a model for the preservation of national and religious values. Mammedov, on the other hand, wants to bring Azerbaijan into NATO and the EU. Both leaders favor greater and intensified ties with Turkey. In addition to these two names, Ali Kerimli, leader of the Azerbaijan People’s Front founded by Ebulfez Elchibey is expected to join the election race as well.

Georgia and Armenia: Hot debates in domestic politics

Bidzina Ivanishvili, the leader of the Georgian Dream coalition that won a victory in the parliamentary elections held in October 2012, has declared that the new government will follow a balanced set of policies and maintain ties with relevant actors in consideration of mutual interests. The subsequent steps of the government confirm this attitude and approach. The government, amidst its efforts upon taking power to erase the traces of the country’s previous president, Mikhail Saakashvili, argued that this was a huge step to address the corruption caused by the wealthy elites in the country. The Georgian Dream coalition guaranteed that the arrest of former government officials in connection with corruption and malpractice charges would not create any negative stance towards NATO and the EU. The new government also seeks to improve ties with Russia in order to secure further economic growth. Another goal of the country is to attain peace in disputed areas, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Prime Minister Ivanishvili, who in official visits to Brussels, Baku and Yerevan made offers for cooperation, has said he will not run for the office of the presidency in elections in October 2013. Whether or not the United National Movement will nominate another name for the presidential elections in place of Saakashvili, who is unable to run for president for a third term under the Georgian constitution, is not yet certain.

However, even though Ivanishvili and Saakashvili will not play an outward role in this process, figures close to them will be involved in the race, which will change the destiny of the region as well as Georgia. The short-term impacts of the current government’s policies will be refined by the policies of the new president and have further effects upon the relations with and approaches to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey.

In Armenia, incumbent Serzh Sarksyan appears to be the strongest candidate in the presidential elections that will be held on Feb. 18. The other candidate, Andreas Ghukasyan, who argued that Sarksyan’s candidacy was not a sign of democracy in the country, held a hunger strike to make the point. Another candidate, Paruyr Hayrikyan, supporting Ghukasyan, declared that he was going to hold a hunger strike for three days, arguing that phony democracy did not fit Armenia. Hayrikyan, who was attacked shortly after the hunger strike, asserted that the attack was relevant to Russia’s influence over Armenia and that the attack was sponsored by Russia. Some politicians noted that such statements would be detrimental to Armenian-Russian relations and expressed that they did not endorse these remarks.

Political analysts suggest that Inheritance Party leader Raffi Hovannisian is the strongest competition for Sarksyan, recalling that his promise to officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and open the country’s borders with Turkey by 2015 is appealing. However, recent public polls reveal that Sarksyan will have a greater chance of winning the presidential election. In this case, Armenia’s isolation in the region will remain the same and it will not develop a constructive policy vis-à-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The presidential elections that will be held in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia will have a great impact on the problems and potential solutions in the region in the short and medium term. If the current leaders are able to preserve their seats in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh will remain the same; however, in the event of any change in the Georgian administration, constructive developments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be expected. In addition, the balanced policy of Georgia towards the countries in the region will be secured by consensus between the new president and administration.

Orhan Gafarlı – Mehmet Fatih Öztarsu