Last months, protest movements in authoritarian rule in Arab countries has shown itself in some parts of the Caucasus and especially in Armenia signals are given for certain changes. In Caucasus, the status quo changing started in 2008 with Russia’s intervention in Georgia. Currently, the strategic initiatives that can not be estimated in the region expectations are to be born to play all over the stones, and new alliances.

The Armenian opposition, which constitutes a powerful alliance of the Armenian National Congress, since last November, continues to increase criticism of Armenia’s power. If this united front, which the country’s first leader Levon Ter Petrosyan’s effect of the weight, could include Dashnaksutyun and former foreign minister Raffi Hovhannisyan as well to its alliance, it was sure to go a softer change in management than in Arab countries. Criticisms directed at the opposition to power are about the weakness of the economy, the political errors of power and foreign policy dilemmas related to previous periods. In general, the failure of foreign policy, regress the country’s economy and Armenia’s national independence in exchange for money to market to great states, the accusations of the opposition has become the most important discourse.

Today, the main issues that Petrosyan stands on and wants to diet are to pay for the families of the people caused arrested and death by force in the previous period of the power, unemployment benefits for reducing unemployment and reorganization of the minimum wage, disclosure of the assets of state officials and aims to revise the executive organs of internal development. In general, Petrosyan who emphasizing the creation of “transparent state” and public mustn’t be spoofed with empty foreign policies, underlines the need to have a moderate discourse in relations with Turkey.

Already one of the topics that separates Petrossian with other dissidents he cannot alliance is a matter of relations with Turkey. The attitude of Dashnaksutyun and Raffi Hovhannisyan towards Turkey is identical to the existing discourses of power. The opposition front, which agrees on all aspects of being against the intervention of Russia in Armenia but differed on the development of relations with Turkey, will affect the course of foreign policy’s way soon.

Before the public the approach that suits the logic, having closed borders with Turkey and stubborn attitude of the politicians is that due to weakening of the country’s economy. However, as the money from the diaspora and Russia has sought to keep the economy alive, it shows a reality that the unemployment rate up to fifty percent says the political fronts rhetoric discourse are wasted except Petrossian’s. Indeed, in January as the Armenian merchants protested the government against customs hike applied upon commercial products from Turkey and China, Armenia’s being the least developed country in Commonwealth of Independent States last year and price increases in food products makes the power’s position questioned before public.

The Power Adopts the Progress

All this in the face of those, the power continuously keeps the issue of Karabakh and Turkey in the agenda and some opposition political groups trying to produce politics over this issue doesn’t hold more importance no longer. In fact, due to the 90^th anniversary of the Treaty of, Dashnak groups hung Sevres’ maps on the streets of Yerevan and stated questioning invalidity of the Treaties of Kars and Gyumri to live on the “Deserved Lands”. However, the Armenian people today recognize the economic reality and characterize nationalist groups as “turned into contractor while mujahideen” for these kinds of initiatives.

Serzh Sargsyan continuously carries out visits to neighborhood countries to make various initiatives in Armenian foreign policy described 3+2 and to eliminate the weakness that the existing crisis atmosphere with Turkey and Azerbaijan create. Making the relations with Russia, Georgia and Iran, which forming the basis of visits, more powerful has been the starting point of the last time Armenian foreign policy.  In addition, it has been tried to build partnerships over anti-Turkey hence the consolidation of ties and the search for a possible alliance with South Cyprus and Greece Turkey.

Will the 24 April Syndrome Clear Away?

Unlike the period of Kocharian, Sarkisian’s period relations with Turkey have a more modest structure. Sargsyan’s football diplomacy and attempts to protocols, interpreted as treason by the nationalist groups and the diaspora has kept Sarkisian under pressure by implication. It is possible to explain Sarkisian’s harsh rhetoric against Turkey since the end of 2009 with the internal and external pressures. Sarkisian’s, who has no way out at the present time, naming  “Last of the Mohicans” has also another importance. Because, the tradition of Karabağlı administrator probably will end with the fading away of Sarkisian. This is another reality that shows how the administration in Armenia will change. Sarkisian provided the necessary softening in relations with Turkey but the resistance and pressure he faced made him step back. In the current process, expecting a soft approach towards Turkey by Armenia is impossible.

Accustomed April 24 syndrome of Turkey on each year will be evaded lightly with the satisfaction of the Armenian side by countries that have adopted the strategic importance of Turkey this year as in previous years as well. However, rather than the international arena, on the approaches to Turkey may have new dimensions during Armenia’s domestic turmoil in the period until 2015. The masses adopting the rhetoric of Petrosyan probably will take steps to improve relations with Turkey and again, as advocated by Petrosyan, will show initiative in the direction of the discussing freely and in a reasonable way about Karabakh. Even in the process of conflict with the power, a moderate approach towards Turkey will also be used as a means of influencing people. Because instead of the government’s pro-Russian policies the public is fed up with, the policy of rapprochement with Turkey, which promised economic recovery, has become quite an attractive political tool for the opposition.

Mehmet Fatih ÖZTARSU – Strategic Outlook

http://www.strategicoutlook.org/2011/08/does-april-24-syndrome-clear-away-by-a-revolution/